Despite two of the most difficult downturns in Aviation Industry, traffic in terms of revenue passenger kilometers, today’s passenger traffic has grown more than 46% since 2000. After declining about 2 percent in 2009, passenger air traffic rose 8 percent in 2010. The persistent resilience of air travel is expected to sustain 6 percent growth in 2011 and keep the growth rate at or above the historical trend through the middle of the next decade. Aviation Forecast suggests that traffic will more than double in the coming 20 years as aviation becomes more accessible to those in emerging markets as well as the more traditional markets in Asia, Europe and North America.
One component of traffic growth, as always, will be the existing travelers who will simply need to fly more. In a survey Airbus conducted recently on the future of flying, respondents suggested they expected to nearly double the number of times they flew each year in the future. Much of the growth will come from the emerging markets of China, India and the Middle-East, with its airline’s leveraging the benefits they have in terms of geography, wealth and global demographics, growing traffic nearly 230%. Traffic contribution from the even markets of Europe and North America is growing at a rate of 11% and 34% respectively. If this growth rate continues there will be 12.3 trillion passengers by the end of 2030.
Market research says that to meet this increased demand for air transportation, the number of airplanes in the worldwide fleet will grow at an annual rate of 3.6 percent, nearly doubling from around 19,400 airplanes today to more than 39,500 airplanes in 2030. The majority of demand will be focused on the 250 and 300 seat segments. Very Large Aircraft like the A380 will increasingly play a crucial role connecting the world, primarily through key aviation “mega” hubs like London Heathrow, Dubai and Hong Kong. Today, we already see the versatility of this class of aircraft in moving people efficiently domestically, regionally and internationally. It is also forecasted that 2,200 aircraft will be converted to freighters with 8,300 permanently retired or withdrawn from service. The low-cost carrier (LCC) model continues to expand across all regions, with LCC fleets expected to grow at an annual rate of 5.7 percent.
This speed of the Aviation Industries recovery from financial crisis is testament to the importance of aviation to the world’s businesses and to people in their day to day lives. But looking into the market analysis we can predict that in near future the key drivers of Aviation Industry will be -
- Economic growth driven by emerging economies.
- Deregulation in Asia, Latin America and Africa.
- Hubs and secondary cities with connecting and large point to point traffic.
- LCCs in Latin America, Middle East, Africa and Asia.